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滬指午后走強重返3000點 煤炭鋼鐵漲幅靠前

發布時間:2016-07-12作者:來源:瀏覽次數:1601

早盤三大股指小幅低開,盤中煤炭、鋼鐵板塊走強一度帶領大盤上攻。但午前突然跳水,領跌,而昨天跌停潮的次新股今天有反彈表現。午后,滬指再度走強,重返购彩平台网址,截至發稿,滬指漲逾1%。盤面上看,煤炭、鋼鐵、券商、航空、西藏、中藥、食品等板塊漲幅居前,集成電路、OLED、虛擬現實、蘋果等板塊跌幅居前。

  XIANGCAIZHENGQUAN:

  在6月解禁潮以及公投黑天鵝落地后,市場將在深港通開通預期以及购彩平台网址逐步落地等中期利好因素驅動下,延續7月上行時間窗口打開后的反彈行情,預計本周上證綜指波動區間為2950-3060點。

  

  ZAIZHIQIANFENGXIANSHIJIANPINFAJIEDUAN,“DIEBUSHEN”BINGBUNENGZUOWEISHICHANGDIBUYIJINGTANMINGDELIYOU,ERSHIZHUBOFANDANDEZIJINDADOUSHIDUANXIANJIAOYI,QIPINFANCAOZUOBENSHENJIANGZAOCHENGSHICHANGDEBUWENDING。SHICHANG“BOFANDAN”DEZAOYINBUTING,HOUSHITANDIGUOCHENGJIUBUHUIJIESHU。

  

购彩平台网址  MUQIANRENGRANMEIYOUZHAODAO“KANCHANGZUODUAN”DEZHUXIANLAIYINLINGYIBOZHENZHENGZHIDECANYUDE“XIONGSHIFANDAN”,HUANXUYAOJINYIBUDENGDAIHEYANZHENGXIANGGUANXINHAO。SHICHANGGENGKENENGSHIZAIREDIANDEKUAISULUNDONGZHONGBUDUANXIAOHAO,JINERTOUZHIDAJIASUOQIDAIDE“CHIFANXINGQING”。

  

  CONGRIXIANLAIKAN,SHANGZHOUYIYANGGUASIXINGBIAOMINGDUOTOUZHANGKONGJUMIAN,DANHOULIANGKESHIYINXINGBIAOMINGDUANXIANDAPANXUYAOHUICAI。BUGUOZHISHUHUICAIFUDUBUHUIHENDA,HUICAIHOUDAPANJIANGYANXUZHUSHENGGEJU,HOUSHIDAPANRENGYOUSHANGGONG3050-3100DIANYIDAIDEQIANLI。

  YINHEZHENGQUAN:

  DUANQIERYAN,GAIGEYUQIXIANGHAOYOUWANGGEISHICHANGZHURUDONGLI,ERQIANQIRAODONGYINSUJUNYILUODI,GUONEIJINGJIJILIUDONGXINGXIANGDUIPINGWEN,MUQIANSHICHANGBINGWUMINGXIANDELIKONGYINSU。ZAICUNLIANGZIJINBOYIDEGEJUXIA,TOUZIZHEYINGFENGHUIDIAOSHISHIBUJU。

  ZHESHANGZHENGQUAN:

  ZAIZONGTICHENGXIAN“ZHENDANGGEJU”DEAGUSHICHANGSHANG,HOUSHIYANYI“CHIFANXINGQING”BINGBURONGYI,SHIDANGDE“ZISHANGERXIA”DEFANGYUSHISHUBIYAO。

  

  做多力量主導向上路徑已經確認

购彩平台网址  YI、ZHANWANG:XIANGSHANGLUJINGQUERENHOU,FENGXIANPIANHAOTISHENGYOULICHENGCHANGGUBIAOXIAN

  市場近期關心的主要問題及我們的看法:(1)我國6月轉正,增加134億美元。近期人民幣兌美元再度貶值,但超預期的外儲增長將平抑匯率波動、穩定市場情緒。投資者擔憂人民幣持續貶值,實質上是擔憂其引發資本外逃并導致正反饋式的連鎖反應。但此輪人民幣貶值卻伴隨著外儲增加,表明資本外流趨勢正在減弱甚至邊際扭轉,人民幣匯率受資本外流沖擊最大的階段可能已經過去,企業端調整海外負債、或者居民端調整海外資產配置對匯率的影響可能邊際弱化。此外,A股市場對匯率波動的敏感度也在下降。人民幣此輪貶值對股市的影響已經鈍化,至少在未來一段時間內匯率將不再是構成制約行情和風險偏好的主要因素。(2)公投“余震”導致歐洲股市再度動蕩,但影響并未擴散。意大利業危機、德銀降級等事件導致歐洲股市上周再度動蕩,但此前各國央行紛紛做出表態使市場產生維穩預期,故而“脫歐”風險并未再度擴散,對购彩平台网址的影響弱化。歐洲風險事件短期內對A股市場的影響有限,而在中長期內,歐洲經濟的動蕩也將使我國金融資產的吸引力相對增加,進而提升我國在國際政治與地緣政治上的話語權。

  市場向上路徑已經確認,風險偏好提升利好彈性更大的成長股,密切關注指標股表現。(1)“吃飯”行情迎來開門紅,向上路徑確認。公投后A股“該跌不跌”,并在7月迎來“開門紅”。現階段做多力量主導市場特征明顯,市場向上路徑已經確認。(2)風險偏好提升更利好彈性較大的成長股。回顧去年市場大跌后兩輪值得參與的反彈,以創業板為代表的成長股彈性均高于主板,賺錢效應更明顯:a、在去年四季度“愛在深秋”行情中,主板漲幅23%,而創業板漲幅超過45%;b、年初2月到4月的一波反彈行情中,主板在資源股帶動下率先啟動,從低點2638點到高點3100點附近上漲了17%。但在反彈后半段,中小創再次跑贏主板,區間漲幅超過25%。目前來看,7、8月的“吃飯”行情風險偏好可能再度向成長股集中。(3)與去年牛市相比,雖然并購帶來的外延增長可能因監管壓力受到抑制,但成長股的中長期產業趨勢和市場空間并未改變,而且目前估值更便宜。當前多數成長股的股價和估值遠低于去年高點,且籌碼結構優化。雖然外延并購邏輯短期受損,但經濟結構轉型方向明確,成長股只是關注度有所下降。(4)今年注重做左側,更愿意在“洼地”里“填坑”的投資者比例提升,成長股對其更有吸引力。年初大跌后,市場特征是以存量博弈為主的區間震蕩,在沒有趨勢性行情的背景下除非持有最強的板塊,否則綜合考量風險收益比,做左側的效果更佳,并且明顯跑輸的板塊可能在風險偏好抬升階段進行補漲。如年初以來傳媒、計算機、社會服務等成長股板塊大幅跑輸市場,而目前市場對這些板塊的關注度正在提升。(5)當前應密切關注成長股中指標股的表現。在去年四季度和今年2-4月的兩輪反彈行情中,等指標股均出現過氣勢如虹的連續漲停。成長股中的權重股、指標股是市場人氣的風向標,其異動可能會成為引爆行情的“導火索”,應當密切關注。

  ER、TOUZICELVEHEZHUTITOUZI

  ZUOCEBUJUGAODANXING、“CHAODIEFANDAN”DECHENGCHANGGU:XUNZHAOANQUANBIANJIHEDUANQICUIHUAJIDEGONGYUESHU。CONGANQUANBIANJIHEDUANQICUIHUAJIDEGONGYUESHUCHUFA,JIANYIGUANZHUCHUANMEI、JISUANJI、TONGXIN、YIYAODENGBANKUAI。ZUIJINZHEXIEBANKUAIDESHICHANGGUANZHUDUZAIZHUJIANTISHENG,DANJIGOUCHICANGZHANBITISHENGBINGBUMINGXIAN,CHUYUBUJUXINGJIABIZUIGAOJIEDUAN。

  從5月起,新能源、OLED、稀土、次新股、等板塊在資金集中抱團下大幅上漲,走出獨立行情。對于這些前期強勢板塊,投資者可以做波段,或在板塊內尋找此前關注度不高或最近轉型的新標的。

购彩平台网址  SUIZHUFENGXIANJIZHONGSHIFANG、TINGFUPAIHETUISHIZHIDUDEWANSHANYIJISHENGANGTONGDENGZHENGCEHONGLIDEZHUBULUODI,JIANGJINYIBUXIUFUSHICHANGFENGXIANPIANHAO,JIANYIGUANZHUFENGXIANPIANHAOBIANJIGAISHANDANXINGZUIDADEQUANSHANGXINGYE。CONGCANGWEIPEIZHIJIAODUKAN,QUANSHANGGUYOU“ZHISHUJIAQIANGBAN”TEZHENG。ZAISHICHANGFENGXIANPIANHAOTISHENG、ZUODUODONGNENGQIANGJINGERQUEFAJUTIBIAODESHI,QUANSHANGGUTONGCHANGHUICHENGWEIZIJINJIZHONGPEIZHI、“BAOTUANQUNUAN”DEBANKUAI,LEISIYUJINNIAN3YUEXIAXUNDEYIBOSHANGZHANG。

  CIWAI,JIANYIGUANZHUJINGQIXIANGSHANGHECUIHUASHIJIANBINGCUNDEXIQUEZHUTIJIHUI,RUGUOQIGAIGE、GONGGEICEGAIGEBIANJISHANGDECHAOYUQIBIANHUA。

  

  政策環境趨向寬松 行情走在多頭路上

  ZUNZHONGSHICHANG:QINGKUANGYIJINGFASHENGBIANHUA。6YUE24RIYINGGUOTUOOUGONGTOUJIEGUOGONGBUHOUAGUSHICHANGWENBUSHANGZHANG,SHUOMINGLIKONGJIEDUANXINGCHUJINHOUKONGFANGLILIANGYIJINGSHUAIJIE。CONGQUANQIUSHICHANGLAIKAN,MEIYINGSHICHANGZHISHUMUQIANYIJINGCHAOGUOLETUOOUGONGTOUQIANDESHUIPING,DEFASHICHANGZHISHUYEYIJINGQIWEN,BIAOMINGYINGGUOTUOOUGONGTOUYINSUYIJINGXIAOHUA。

  MUQIANTOUZIZHEYOULIANGGEYILV:YISHIDANXINMEIYOUZIJINCHIXULIURU,SHICHANGSHANGZHANGDONGNENGYOUXIAN;ERSHIDANXINMEIYOUXINREDIAN,SHICHANGSHANGZHANGQUEFAZHUXIAN。WOMENRENWEIZHELIANGGEWENTIDOUBUYONGDANXIN。MUQIANDUOTOUYIJINGZHANYOU,ZIJINZHENGZAIZHUBURUSHI。HUIGUJINSANGEYUEDESHICHANGZOUSHI:4YUEZHONGDAO5YUEZHONG,LIKONGCHUXIANSHIDAPANFANGLIANGXIADIE;5YUEZHONGXIAXUNSHICHANGSUOLIANGPANZHENG;6YUELIKONGBUDUAN,SHICHANGBUDANBUDIEJIAOYILIANGHUANKAISHIFANGDA,ZHESHUOMINGDUOKONGLILIANGDUIBIYIJINGFASHENGLEBIANHUA,DUOTOUKAISHIZHANSHANGFENG。CIWAI,GUANCHAMINGANDERONGZIYUE,5YUE30RIWEI8186YIYUAN,7YUE7RIYIJINGSHANGSHENGZHI8670YIYUAN。

购彩平台网址  SHICHANGSHANGZHANGDEXINZHUXIANHEREDIANTONGYANGWUXUDANYOU。HUIGU2015NIAN9DAO12YUEXINGQING:9YUEZHONGDAO10YUEDISHICHANGREDIANJIZHONGZAIXINNENGYUANQICHE、WANGLUOANQUANDENGZHUTI;10YUEDI11YUECHUSHICHANGBIAOXIANPIRUAN,TOUZIZHEHUAIYIFANDANJIESHU,JIEGUO11YUECHUQUANSHANGGUDAILINGZHISHUDAZHANG,BINGBANSUIXUNIXIANSHI、IPDENGXINREDIANBUDUANYONGXIAN。

购彩平台网址  BEIHOULUOJI:ZHENGCEHUANJINGZOUXIANGKUANSONG。JINNIANDEHONGGUANDIAOKONGSHI“QUJIANDIAOKONG、DINGXINGDIAOKONG、XIANGJIDIAOKONG”,YINCIJINGJIDIMISHIZHENGCESONG、GUSHIZHANG,JINGJIXIANGHAOSHIZHENGCEJIN、GUSHIDIE。1YUEDIDAO4YUEZHONGDESHICHANGSHANGZHANGYUANYUJINGJIDIMISHIZHENGCESONG;4YUEZHONGDAO5YUEDIDESHICHANGXIADIEYUANYUJINGJIXIANGHAOHOUZHENGCESHOU;MUQIANZHENGCEHUANJINGZAICIZOUXIANGKUANSONG,YOULIYUSHICHANG。

  6月制造業下降至榮枯線,環比下降,同比上漲。這個增购彩平台网址通脹組合,預示著國內政策將階段性再次走向寬松。

购彩平台网址  YANGXINGZAI6YUEFENJINGTOUFANGLE5350YIYUANJICHUHUOBI,WEINIANNEIDIERDAHUOBIJINGTOUFANGYUE。ERQIEYINGGUOTUOOUGONGTOUHOUHAIWAIHUOBIKUANSONGYUQISHENGWEN,MEIGUOJIAXIYUQIDAFUXIAJIANG,YINGGUO、RIBEN、OUYANGXINGDENGJUNBIAOSHIBIYAOSHIHUIJIXUKUANSONG。CIWAI,SUIRANRENMINBI5YUEYILAIZAICIBIANZHI,6YUEFENWOGUOWAIHUICHUBEIQUEZENGJIALE134YIMEIYUAN,DACHAOSHICHANGYUQI,ZHEWEIGUONEIZHENGCEJIEDUANXINGPIANSONGYINGZAOLEJIAOHAODEWAIBUHUANJING。

  YINGDUICELVE:SHIYIQI,WUHUAIYI。DUIYU6-12GEYUEDEZHONGQIERYAN,WOMENWEICHIZHENDANGSHIGEJUPANDUAN,DUANQILIANGGEYUENEIWEICHILEGUANPANDUAN。ZHENDANGSHIZHONGDEDUANQIBODONGQUJUEYUJINGJIHEZHENGCEDEDONGTAIBIANHUA,MUQIANSHICHANGZAICIBURUZHENGCEZOUXIANGPIANSONGSHIQI,XINGQINGYIJINGZOUZAIDUOTOULUSHANG,TOUZIZHECAOZUOKEBAOCHIJIJI。

  在半年報披露期,建議繼續以穩增長類個股為底倉,短期關注彈性品種,如券商、軍工。7-8月是半年報公布期,業績將成為市場關注焦點。券商本面最壞時期已經過去,目前機構對其配置低,整個板塊6月經營數據優異,未來存在金融改革等催化因素。

  CIWAI,JUNGONG、GUOQIGAIGEDENGZHUTIYEKEJIJIGUANZHU。

  

  中級反彈進行中

购彩平台网址  WEILAIJIGEYUESHIFUMIANXINXIZHENKONGQI,GEZHONGBUQUEDINGXINGLUXUXIAOCHU,JINGJIZHUJIANHAOZHUAN,WEISHICHANGJIXUFANDANCHUANGZAOLELIANGHAODETIAOJIAN。

  從內部環境來看,中國依然保持平穩運行態勢,市場預期穩定。從目前公布的5月份、6月份PMI、通脹數據來看,經濟雖然有著一定的下行壓力,但卻呈現出逐漸穩定的趨勢。

购彩平台网址  CONGWAIBUHUANJINGLAIKAN,MEIGUOJINGJISUIYOUFANDAN,DANJIAXIGAILVYIRANDIWEIPAIHUAI。MEIGUOFEINONGJIUYESHUJUSUIRANCHAOYUQI,DANJIEGOUBUJIA,11YUEFENQIANJIAXIGAILVYIRANJIDI。

购彩平台网址  CONGNEIWAIYINGXIANGLAIKAN,ZHONGGUODEJINGJIFUSUYOUKENENGKAISHIZHANKAI,BIJIAOMINGXIANDEYIGEJIXIANGSHISUIZHUHUILVXIADIE,ZHONGGUODEWAIHUICHUBEIBUJIANGFANSHENG。ZHEHUOXUBIAOMINGHUILVBIANZHIDUIJINGJIDECUJINZUOYONGZHENGZAIXIANXIAN,JINGJIYOUKENENGCHUXIANNEISHENGXINGFUSU。

  CONGSHICHANGQINGKUANGLAIKAN,ZHONGQIFANDANZHENGZAIYOUXUZHANKAI。MUQIANSHICHANGREDIANZHENGCHUXIANLIANGXINGLUNDONG,CONGQIANQIDEXINNENGYUANQICHECHANYELIAN、BAIJIU、YOUSEDENGZHUBUXIANGDIANZI、JUNGONG、GANGTIEMEITANDENGXINGYEKUOSAN,2800-3370DIANDEZHONGJIFANDANXINGQINGZHENGZAIJINXINGZHONG。

  TOUZICELVE:1、FANDANZHONGDUAN,HUIDIAOJISHIJIACANGSHIJI;

  2、ZAIFANDANGUOCHENGZHONGJIANYIGUANZHUQIANQIZHIZHANGDEQUANSHANGBANKUAI;

购彩平台网址  3、ZAIGONGGEICEGAIGEYUQIXIUFUFANGMIAN,JIANYIGUANZHUGANGTIE、MEITANDENGZHOUQIXINGXINGYE;

购彩平台网址  4、ZAIGONGGEICEGAIGECHENGXIAOFANGMIAN,JIANYIGUANZHUHUAGONGZHONGDEZHOUQIPINZHANGJIABANKUAI,BAOKUOZHANJIAODUANXIAN、TAIBAIFENDENGXINGYE;

购彩平台网址  5、ZAIJINQIREDIANSHANG,JIANYIGUANZHUHANGTIANJUNGONG、BEIDOUDAOHANGDENG。

  

  讓周期品行情再飛一會

  ZHOUQIPINQIANGSHICHUXIANDUANNI,XINGQINGNENGZOUDUOYUAN?MUQIANSHICHANGYANYIDESHIZHISHUQUJIANBODONGXIADEJIEGOUXINGXINGQING,ERFEIDIFENGXIANQIGEBANKUAIPUZHANGDE“CHIFANXINGQING”。CELVESHANG,CANGWEIXUANZEHEDAXIAOPANFENGGEDEZHONGYAOXINGJIANGRANGWEIYUDUIQIANZAIQIANGSHIBANKUAIDEJIZHONGPEIZHI。JIBENMIANJIANDI、GUZHIYOUBUGAO、ANQUANXINGYEBIJIAOHAODEBUFENJUYOUZHANGJIAYUQIDEZHOUQIPINBANKUAI,DAGAILVJIANGCHENGWEIXINDEQIANGSHIBANKUAI。

购彩平台网址  GONGGEICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGESHIBENLUNZHOUQIPINXINGQINGDEZHUYAOLUOJI。SHOUXIAN,BENLUNZHOUQIPINXINGQINGZUIDADEYUQICHAZAIYU:1)KUCUNJIANDIZHICHENGXIADANGQIANSHANGPINJIAGEDEYUNXINGLUOJISHI“JIAGESHANGZHANGYUQITUISHENGXUQIU”,ERBUSHI“XUQIUZENGCHANGYUQILASHENGJIAGE”。2)GONGGEICEJIEGOUXINGGAIGETIGONGDEBUJINSHICHANGQI“GUSHI”,HUANYOUDUANQI“GUSHI”:DIKUCUNHEBUFENPINZHONGDEJIAGEKEYIWUSHICHANNENGXUQIUGUANXICHIXUSHANGZHANG,QIENANYIZHENGWEI。

  KUANHUOBI、JINXINYONGSHIZHOUQIPINZHANGJIADEHONGGUANDALUOJI。TOUZIZHEDUIYUZHOUQIPINXINGQINGZUIDADEDANYOUZAIYUCHIXUXING,ERDUICHIXUXINGZUIDADEDANYOUZAIYUFUCHANHEQUCHANNENGSHOUZU。WOMENRENWEI,ZHEGEDANYOUHUSHILEBENLUNZHANGJIACHAOYUYIWANGHONGGUANBEIJINGDECHAYI。YIWANGSHIKUANHUOBI、KUANXINYONG,JIAGESHANGZHANG、LIRUNKONGJIANDAKAI,QIYEFUCHAN;XIANZAISHIKUANHUOBI、JINXINYONG,KUANHUOBITIGONGLEZICHANJIAGESHANGZHANGDONGLI,ERJINXINYONGTUIDONGLEQUGANGGANYIZHIGONGGEI。JINNIANYIJIDUKAISHI,GUOSHENGCHANNENGXINGYEDEDAIKUANTOUFANGLISHISHANGSHOUCICHUXIANFUZENGCHANG,ZHENGSHILAKAILEGUOSHENGCHANNENGXINGYEQUGANGGANDAMU。ZAIZHEGEBEIJINGXIASHANGYOUZHOUQIPINZHANGJIAQUSHIBURONGYINIUZHUAN,SUOYIWOMENJIANDINGRENWEI“ZHELUNZHOUQIPINZHANGJIABUYIYANG”,ZHELUNZHOUQIPINZHANGJIAXINGQINGYULIAOJIANGYOUJIAOQIANGDECHIXUXING。

  

  3030點難以快速突破

  CONGSHANGZHOUPANMIANLAIKAN,YOUJIGETEZHENGZHIDEGUANZHU。SHOUXIAN,SUIRANZHISHUZHONGXINTAISHENG,DANZHONGYAODEFENGXIANGBIAO——QUANSHANGGUBINGWEICHIXUFALI,GENGDUODITIXIANWEIYIRIYOUXINGQING,YIDINGCHENGDUSHANGFANYINGLEZIJINDUIYUBENLUNFANDANXINGQINGDEGAODUYOUSUOBAOLIU;QICI,SHICHANGREDIANSUIRANJIAOWEIFENGFU,MEITAN、YOUSEDENGBANKUAIPANZHONGHUOYUE,DANZHEZHONG“MEIFEISEWU”DECHIXUXINGBINGBULIXIANG。CIWAI,BAIJIU、HUANGJINBANKUAIZAISHANGZHOUJIXUDEDAOZHULIUZIJINDEGUANZHU,ZHEQISHIYETOULUCHUZIJINDEFANGYUYIYUAN;DISAN,CONGJIEGOUJIAODULAIKAN,BENLUNXINGQINGDEXIANFENGYIZHISHIYIZHONGXIAOCHUANGWEIZHUDEGELEITICAI、GAINIANBANKUAI,ZHUBANPINZHONGZHANGFUYIZHIXIANGDUILUOHOU。ZAIDANGQIANLIUDONGXINGXIANGDUIYOUXIANDEQINGKUANGXIA,SHICHANGFENGGEZHUANHUANNANDUJIAODA,YEJIUSHISHUOLANCHOUGUJIEBANGSHANGZHANGDEGAILVXIANGDUIJIAOXIAO。ERZAILIDIANCHI、LIANGZITONGXIN、HANGTIANJUNGONGDENGBANKUAIJUNLUNFANHUOYUEZHIHOU,LUNDONGZHOUQIYIJINGQUYUWANCHENG,SHICHANGXUYAOTONGGUOYIDINGDEHUIDIAOZHENGGUYIYUNNIANGXINDELINGZHANGREDIAN,ZHEYEZAIWUXINGZHONGJIADALEZHISHUDUANQIDIAOZHENGDEYALI。

  DUANQISHICHANGYALISHIJISHANGGENGDUODILAIZIYUJISHUMIANSHANGDEYAOQIU。YICIQIANGAODIAN3684DIANDAO2638DIANDIDIANQUYUZUOHUANGJINFENGEWEIFENXI,KEYIKANDAOZHONGYAODE0.382FENGEWEIZAI3030DIANZUOYOU,CUNZAIDUANQIJISHUXINGYAZHI。CIWAI,CONGGENGDADEZHOUXIANJIAODULAIKAN,SHANGLUNSHANGGONG5178DIANXINGQINGZHENZHENGYIYISHANGDEZHANKAIZHENGSHIYITUPO120ZHOUJUNXIANWEIXINHAO。MUQIANGAIJUNXIANTONGYANGZAI3030DIANFUJIN,QIJISHUYIYIJUDA。YINCI,ZAIZHISHUYIJINGBIJINGAIWEIZHI,TONGSHIQUEFACHENGJIAOLIANGDEXIANZHUFANGDADEQINGKUANGXIA,SHICHANGBENSHENBINGBUJUBEIQIANGYOULIDEKUAISUTUPOTIAOJIAN。XUANZESHIDANGDEHUIDIAOFANERNENGGENGHAODIQINGXIFUCHOU,BINGJINYIBUJIXUXIANGSHANGCHONGJIDONGNENG。

  

  樂觀預期正提前透支

  利空出盡到寬松再起,樂觀預期正提前透支。英國脫歐公投結果出來后,海內外美林時鐘“電風扇”又呼呼開轉,無論是風險資產的股市、购彩平台网址,還是避險資產的貴金屬、債券等都呈現普漲格局。如果說“靴子”落地利空出盡會帶來風險資產的階段反彈,那貴金屬、債券的同步上漲則隱含了進一步的貨幣政策寬松預期。國內市場過去兩周同樣將這一預期進行了充分反映。但目前需要考慮的是,若市場預期已將進一步寬松包含在內,未來即使兌現,對股價的邊際變化也不會有明顯提振,除非后續有持續的寬松預期發酵。然而目前流動性相對寬裕,很難有超預期的政策推出;反之,若寬松無法兌現,預期修正將會帶來負向承壓。加上匯率波動和潛在的通脹制約,反彈行情難言繼續。

  監管仍在趨嚴。投資者需要關注監管趨嚴和金融去杠桿帶來的影響。目前監管趨嚴正從層面的一級市場環節(暫緩注冊制、并購重組審核趨嚴等),開始向二級市場交易環節蔓延,如此前對次新股炒作的嚴查、“”等股價操縱的處罰等。上周電氣欺詐上市終于迎來處罰結果,將被強制退市,興業證券運用自有資金設立5.5億元先行賠付專項基金,遠遠超過的3億元賠付資金。雖然監管趨嚴中長期利好A股市場環境凈化,但切勿低估政策連鎖反應帶來的對市場的短期影響,在消耗性博弈中投資者應保持一分清醒。

  JINGTI“WENSHUIZHUQINGWA”。SHICHANGPUBIANRENWEIDANGQIANSHILIKONGCHUJINDEKONGCHUANGQI,JINERKAISHI“SHIBUWODAI”DEJIACANGXINGDONG。DANGXIAXIANGDUISHOUYITOUZIZHEHEJUEDUISHOUYITOUZIRENDECANGWEIDOUYIJINGJINRUGAOSHUIWEIQUYU,ERBANKUAIKUAISULUNDONGHEJINGJIANCHIZENGJIAZHENGJIASUCUNLIANGBOYIDEXIAOHAOZHAN。TONGSHI,WEILAICUNZAIQIANZAIFENGXIANCHUFADEKENENG:DIYI,TOUZIZHEDANGXIADUIYUHUILVBODONGPUBIANBUMINGAN,BINGDUIXIAOBUMANZOUDEBIANZHICELVEXINGCHENGGONGSHI,DANTOUZIZHERENGXUJINFANGDUANQICHAODIAOHEZIBENLIUDONGFENGXIAN;DIER,SHICHANGDUIHUOBIKUANSONGYUQIWEILAIWUFADUIXIAN,HUOSHIHUOBIZHENGCEDEYUDIAOWEIDIAOZHIHOUYUSHITIJINGJIXIANGXIADIAOZHENGDEFENGXIAN;DISAN,HAIWAIYIDEYIZHIYINXING、YIDALIYINXINGYEWEIDAIBIAODEJINRONGJIGOUFENGXIANJINYIBUMANYAN。

  聚焦軍工與AR主題。軍工有望成為存量博弈的下一個超級熱點,推薦,并可關注“改革+產業”驅動的中航系和航天系標的。

  此外,航空()、()、小家電()等仍可積極配置。同時積極參與熱點主題,推薦AR/VR等產業();政策發力的國企改革主題()、海綿城市、物聯網等主題。

  

  攻防戰將繼續

  展望后市,圍繞购彩平台网址的攻防戰仍在繼續,指數料有反復,結構性行情尚在,只是短線操作宜以審慎思路應對。

  SHOUXIAN,JISHUSHANGZAI3000DIANZHENGSHUGUANKOUJINXINGGONGFANGZHANJISHILISHIGUILV,YESHIMUQIANZHISHUSHOUZHIYU3097DIANYALIDEYIZHONGTENGNUOXUYAO。YINCI,3000DIANYIXIANDEZHENGGUZHENDANGNANYIBIMIAN,SHIJIANSHANGHUOXUYAO1-2ZHOU。

  QICI,CONGLIANGHUATONGJIKAN,BENZHOUSHICHANGJINRUJIAOWEIGUANJIANDESHIJIANCHUANGKOU,ERZHOUYISHIZHONGYAODECESHIDIAN。ZHOUYIDAPANCHONGGAOHUILUO,HOUSHIXIANGXIAKONGJIANYOUXIAN,GENGDUOJIANGYIZHENDANGTENGNUOWEIZHU。

  QISAN,CONGLUOJISHANGKAN,MUQIANSHICHANGCHUYUNIANNEIDIERCI“CHIFANXINGQING”DEGUOCHENGZHONG,ZHISHAOJIEGOUXINGDE“CHIFAN”JIHUIRENGZAI。YIFANGMIAN,GUSHIJIANKANGFAZHANDEZHIDUJIANSHEYUQIRENGZAI,CHANGNEIZIJIN“CHIFAN”JIQINGRENGZAI;DANSHILINGYIFANGMIAN,LIANGHUAZHIBIAODEPIANLIXIANSHILESHICHANGDESHANGDANGYALI。YINCI,MUQIANSHICHANGZHIDUCENGMIANDEGAISHANYUQIRENGZAI,HUOBIZHENGCEDENGFANGMIANZEPIANYUZHONGXING,JISHUMIANSHANGYOUSUOPIANKONG。ZONGHELAIKAN,BENZHOUSHICHANGKENENGYIZHENDANGZHENGGUWEIZHU,3000DIANDEGONGFANGZHANRENGJIANGCHIXU,YIGUZUOQIBAITUO3000DIANDEGAILVBUDA。

  CAOZUOSHANG,3000DIANSHANGFANGSHIYIFENGGAOKONGZHICANGWEI,DANGRANYIDANRIXIANCHUXIANDAFUHUICHEZERENGKEDIXI。JIANYICHULEGUANZHUYOUSE、SHIPIN、YIYAOWAI,GEGUFANGMIANYINGGENGDUOLIZUBANNIANBAO,BAWOYINGLIHEGUZHIDEPIPEI。LINGWAI,HUANKEGENZONGZIJINHUILIUQIANQIZHIZHANGDETMTDENGZHUTIDECHIXUXING,YIJIJUNGONGGUDEBIAOXIAN,ZHEYESHISHICHANGQIANGRUODECESHIJI。ZONGZHI,ZAIZIJINYIBOYIWEIZHUDESHIKUANGXIA,YINGJIXIAOSHENGWEIDASHENG,BUBUWEIYING。


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